Retail Sales increased 0.3% in November

by Bill McBride on 12/13/2012 09:00:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.3% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.7% from November 2011. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $412.4 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent from the previous month and 3.7 percent above November 2011. ... The September to October 2012 percent change was unrevised from -0.3 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

The change in sales for October was unrevised at a 0.3% decline.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 24.5% from the bottom, and now 8.8% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

The second graph shows the same data, b ut just since 2006 (to show the recent changes). Most of the decline in October was due to fewer auto sales - a direct impact of Hurricane Sandy. Retail sales ex-autos were unchanged in November - so only autos bounced back.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 21.3% from the bottom, and now 8.9% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 4.0% on a YoY basis (3.7% for all retail sales).

This was at the consensus forecast of no change ex-autos, but below the consensus forecast for total retail sales of a 0.6% increase in November. Retail sales are still sluggish, but generally trending up.