HVS: Q3 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

by Bill McBride on 10/30/2012 05:23:00 PM

The Census Bureau released the Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2012 this morning.

This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, based on the initial evaluation, it appears the vacancy rates are too high.

It might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. My understanding is the Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.

Click on graph for larger image.

The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st 1990, 2000 and 2010. The HVS homeownership rate was unchanged from Q2 at 65.5%, and down from 66.3% in Q3 2011.

I'd put more weight on the decennial Census numbers and that suggests the actual homeownership rate is probably in the 64% to 65% range.

The HVS homeowner vacancy rate declined to 1.9% from 2.1% in Q2. This is the lowest level since 2005 for this report.

The homeowner vacancy rate has peaked and is now declining, although it isn't really clear what this means. Are these homes becoming rentals? Anyway - once again - this probably shows that the trend is down, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.

The rental vacancy rate was unchanged from Q2 at 8.6%, and down from 9.8% in Q3 2011.

I th ink the Reis quarterly survey (large apartment owners only in selected cities) is a much better measure of the overall trend in the rental vacancy rate - and Reis reported that the rental vacancy rate has fallen to the lowest level since 2001.

The quarterly HVS is the most timely survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey. Unfortunately many analysts still use this survey to estimate the excess vacant supply. However this does suggest that the housing vacancy rates have declined sharply.

Earlier on House Prices:
• Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 2.0% year-over-year in August
• House Price Comments, Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio
• All Current House Price Graphs

Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 2.0% year-over-year in August

by Bill McBride on 10/30/2012 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July (a 3 month average of June, July and August).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data.

From S&P: Home Prices Continued to Rise in August 2012 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through August 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed average home prices increased by 0.9% for both the 10- and 20-City Composites in August versus July 2012. Nineteen of the 20 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly gains in August; Seattle was the only exception where prices declined 0.1% over the month.

The 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of +1.3% and +2.0% in August 2012 â€" an improvement over the +0.6% and +1.2% respective annual rates posted for July 2012. Eighteen of the 20 cities and both Composites posted better annual returns in August compared to July 2012. Annual returns for Dallas remained unchanged at +3.6% and Chicago saw its annual return worsen from -1.0% in July to 1.6% in August 2012.
...
“Home prices continued climbing across the country in August,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Nineteen of the 20 cities and both Composites showed monthly gains in August. Seventeen cities and both Composites posted positive annual returns in August 2012. In 18 cities and both Composites annual rates improved in August versus July. Dallas’ rate remained unchanged at +3.6% and Chicago worsened slightly from a -1.0% annual rate in July to a -1.6% annual rate in August.

“Phoenix continues to lead the home price recovery. It recorded its fourth consecutive month of double-digit positive annual returns with a +18.8% rate for August. Atlanta posted a -6.1% annual rate, however this is significantly better than the nine consecutive months of double-digit declines it posted from October 2011 through June 2012. Las Vegas’ annual rate finally moved to positive territory with a +0.9% annual rate of change in August 2012, its first since January 2007.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 31.5% from the peak, and up 0.4% in August (SA). The Composite 10 is up 4.0% from the post bubble low set in March (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 30.92% from the peak, and up 0.5% (SA) in August. The Composite 20 is up 4.4% from the post-bubble low set in March (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 1.3% compared to August 2011.

The Composite 20 SA is up 2.0% compared to August 2011. This was the third consecutive month with a year-over-year gain since 2010 (when the tax credit boosted prices temporarily).

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Prices increased (SA) in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in August seasonally adjusted (also 19 of 20 cities increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 59.5% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 5.8% from the peak. Note that the red column (cumulative decline through August 2012) is above previous declines for all cities.

This was about at the consensus forecast and the recent change to a year-over-year increase is a significant story. I'll have more on prices later.

House Price Comments, Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio

by Bill McBride on 10/30/2012 11:41:00 AM

Case-Shiller reported the third consecutive year-over-year (YoY) gain in their house price indexes since 2010 - and the increase back in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit. Excluding the tax credit, the previous YoY increase was back in 2006. The YoY increase in August suggests that house prices probably bottomed earlier this year (the YoY change lags the turning point for prices).

The following table shows the year-over-year increase since the beginning of the year.

Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index
Month	YoY Change
Jan-12	-3.9%
Feb-12	-3.5%
Mar-12	-2.5%
Apr-12	-1.7%
May-12	-0.5%
Jun-12	0.6%
Jul-12	1.1%
Aug-12	2.0%
Sep-12	Â
Oct-12	Â
Nov-12	Â
Dec-12	Â
Jan-13

On a not seasonally adjusted basis (NSA), house prices will probably start to decline month-to-month in October. But I think prices will remain above the post-bubble lows set earlier this year.

Here is another update to a few graphs: Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices, and it is also useful to look at house prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation) and as a price-to-rent ratio. Real prices, and the price-to-rent ratio, are back to late 1999 to 2000 levels depending on the index.

Nominal House Prices

< b>Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the quarterly Case-Shiller National Index SA (through Q2 2012), and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA and CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through August) in nominal terms as reported.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to Q1 2003 levels (and also back up to Q4 2010), and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to August 2003 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to December 2003.

Real House Prices

The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

In real terms, the National index is back to mid-1999 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to June 2000, and the CoreLogic index back to February 2001.

In real terms, most of the appreciation early in the last decade is gone.

Price-to-Rent

In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.

Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.

This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to Q3 1999 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to June 2000 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to February 2001.

In real terms - and as a price-to-rent ratio - prices are mostly back to 1999 or early 2000 levels.

All Current House Price Graphs

The S&P 500 change following Presidential Elections

by Bill McBride on 10/28/2012 01:45:00 PM

For fun on a Sunday: I've been asked frequently how investors will react to the election. First, every election is different. Sometimes it is obvious who is going to win, and the election results are completely expected (like Reagan in 2004 or Clinton in 1996). Other times the election is close (this election is close although I expect President Obama to be reelected).

Sometimes the economy is clearly headed into recession like in 2008. The 2000 election was during the ongoing decline following the stock bubble, and the election was especially unsettling because the Supreme Court made the final decision.

There are always some partisan analysts who predict doom if their candidate doesn't win (see Bruce Bartlett's Partisan Bias and Economic Forecasts). But any "doom" related to the election will be in the intermediate or long term, not in 2013.

The followin g graph shows the change in the S&P 500 from election day through the end of the year for all elections since 1952. Note: The number of trading days varied mostly because of the timing of the election.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The two worst performing years - no surprise - were 2000 and 2008. The 2000 election followed the stock market bubble, and the economy was collapsing in 2008.

The other elections with a slight negative change were 1956, 1964, and 1984. These were all pr esidents being reelected and the results were obvious in advance: Eisenhower won reelection with 57.4% of the vote, Johnson won with 61.1%, and Reagan with 58.8%.

But most of the time the market has increased following the election, and the median increase from election day to the end of the year was 3.6%. Every election is different and this is NOT investment advice!

Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity expands slowly in October

by Bill McBride on 10/29/2012 10:30:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands but at a Slower Pace

Texas factory activity increased in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped from 10 to 7.9, indicating slightly slower growth.

Most other measures of current manufacturing activity also suggested growth in October, although new orders declined. The capacity utilization index edged up from 9.3 to 11.4, with more than one-quarter of manufacturers noting an increase. The shipments index held steady at 4.7, suggesting shipments rose at about the same pace as in September. The new orders index fell from 5.3 to â€"4.5, reaching its lowest level this year and indicating a decrease in demand.

Perceptions of general business conditions improved slightly in October. The general business activity index rose to 1.8, registering its first positive reading since June. The company outlook index was positive for the sixth month in a row and remained un changed at 2.4.

Labor market indicators reflected slow but steady labor demand growth and shrinking workweeks. The employment index was 5.2 in October, largely unchanged from last month but well below the higher levels seen earlier in the year. About 15 percent of firms reported hiring new workers, while 10 percent reported layoffs. The hours worked index fell back into negative territory with a reading of â€"5.9, down from 2.8 in September.

This was at expectations of a reading of 2 for the general business activity index. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (dashed green, through October), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through September (right axis).

The ISM index for O ctober will be released Thursday, Nov 1st, and these surveys suggest another weak reading close to 50.

Monday: Personal Income and Spending, Senior Loan Officer Survey

by Bill McBride on 10/28/2012 09:50:00 PM

To all in the path of Sandy: Stay safe and dry!

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Personal Income and Outlays report for September is expected to be released. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income in September, and for 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 1.7% year-over-year.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 2, up from -0.9 last month. This is the last of the regional survey for October.

• At 2:00 PM, The Federal Reserve is expect to release the October 2012 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.

• Expected: the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Apartment Survey. This is a key survey for apartment vacancy rates and rents.

The Asian markets are mixed tonight, with the Nikkei up 0.3%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 2 and DOW futures are down 10.

Oil prices are down recently with WTI futures at $86.28 per barrel and Brent down to $110.12 per barrel.

Weekend:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 26th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 28th

Three more questions this week for the October economic prediction contest and four question for the November contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 864 Institutions

by Bill McBride on 10/27/2012 01:11:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 26, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The FDIC released its actions through September 2012 and closed a bank this week. There were five removals and four additions leaving the Unofficial Problem Bank List with 864 institutions with assets of $330.4 billion. A year ago, the list had 985 institutions with assets of $406.6 billion. For the month, changes included 11 action terminations, four failures, one unassisted merger, and six additions. Overall, it was a quiet month as it was the fewest action terminations since February 2012 and the fewest additions since the publication of the list.

Actions were terminated against Metro Bank, Lemoyne, PA ($2.4 billion Ticker: METR); Heritage Bank of Central Illinois, Trivoli, IL ($308 million); Minnwest Bank South, Tracy, MN ($213 million); and Freedom Bank, Sterling, IL ($76 million). The failure was Nova Bank, Berwyn, PA ($483 million), which the FDIC could not find a buyer for.

The additions were First State Financial, Inc., Pineville, KY ($395 million); Gol den Eagle Community Bank, Woodstock, IL ($152 million); Signature Bank of Georgia, Sandy Springs, GA ($136 million); and Talbot State Bank, Woodland, GA ($72 million). Who would have guessed there are still some unidentified problem banks in Georgia.

CR Note: The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public. (CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest.)

As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest.

When the list was increasing, the official and "unofficial" counts were about the same. Now, with the number of problem banks declining, the unofficial list is lagging the official list. This probably means regulators are changing the CAMELS rating on some banks before terminating the formal enforcement actions.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 26th

Schedule for Week of Oct 28th

by Bill McBride on 10/27/2012 03:55:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 26th

The key report this week is the October employment report to be released on Friday. Other key reports include the August Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, October auto sales on Thursday, and the October ISM manufacturing index, also on Thursday.

There are two interesting surveys that will be released on Monday; the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey that might show some slight increase in loan demand or loosening of lending standards, and the NMHC apartment survey that tends to lead other indicators of changes in the apartment market.

----- Monday, Oct 29th ----- 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income in September, and for 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 1.7% year-over-year.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October. This is the last of the regional survey for October.

2:00 PM: The October 2012 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve.

Expected: National Multi Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Apartment Survey. This is a key survey for apartment vacancy rates and rents.

----- Tuesday, Oct 30th ----- 9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August. Although this is the August report, it is really a 3 month average of June, July and August.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through May 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 2.1% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 prices (NSA) for August. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 1.7% year-over-year , and for prices to increase 0.2% month-to-month seasonally adjusted. The CoreLogic index increased 0.2% in August (NSA).

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October. The consensus is for an increase to 72.0 from 70.3 last month.

10:00 AM: Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, based on the initial evaluation, it appears the vacancy rates are too high. The Census Bureau is looking into the differences between the HVS, the ACS, and the decennial Census, and until the issues are resolved, this survey probably shouldn't be used to estimate the excess vacant housing supply.

----- Wednesday, Oct 31st ----- 7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for an increase to 51.7, up from 49.7 in September.

----- Thursday, Nov 1st ----- 8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 135,000 payroll jobs added in October. This is the first report using the new methodology, and the consensus probably doesn't reflect the change. I expect something lower than the consensus.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 365 thousand from 369 thousand.

8:30 AM: Productivity and Costs for Q3. The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in unit labor costs.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The ISM index indicated expansion in September, after three consecutive months of contraction. The consensus is for a decrease to 51.0, up from 51.5 in September. (above 50 is expansion).

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 15.0 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the September sales rate.

TrueCar is forecasting:

The October 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 14.9 million new car sales, up from 13.3 million in October 2011 and down from 14.94 million in September 2012

Edmunds.com is forecasting:

Edmunds.com ... forecasts that 1,132,878 new cars will be sold in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 14.8 million light vehicles.

----- Friday, Nov 2nd ----- 8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is for an increase of 120,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October; there were 114,000 jobs added in September.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 7.9% in October, up from 7.8% in September.

This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through September.

The economy has added 5.2 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 including preliminary benchmark revision (4.6 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are still 3.7 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007 (including benchmark revision).

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for September. The consensus is for a 4.0% decrease in orders.

Summary for Week Ending Oct 26th

by Bill McBride on 10/27/2012 08:09:00 AM

There was some disappointing data last week - mostly from some regional manufacturing surveys, but also mortgage delinquencies increased - but overall this was the fourth week in a row with somewhat better than expected data, and this suggests a little pickup in economic activity.

Once again housing beat expectations.  New home sales increased to 389,000, a pace well above the 306,000 sales in 2011, and the highest level since the tax credit related spike in April 2010.  Q3 GDP was weak, but slightly above expectations - and residential investment was a fairly strong contributor to growth.

The Architecture Billings Index is now showing expansion (an indicator for commercial real estate including apartments).  And the trucking index increased in  September (although this index has been moving sideways this year). 

On the downside, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys were weak and indicated contraction in October. The recent trend is continuing: housing is improving, but manufacturing is struggling.

Here is a summary of last week in graphs:

• New Home Sales at 389,000 SAAR in September

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in September were a t a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 389 thousand. This was up from a revised 368 thousand SAAR in August (revised down from 373 thousand). This is the highest level since April 2010 (tax credit related bounce).

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale was at a record low 38,000 units in September. The combined total of completed and under construction is just above the record low since "under construction" is starting to increase.

Even though sales are still very low, new home sales have clearly bottomed. New home sales have averaged 364 thousand SAAR over the first 9 months of 2012, after averaging under 300 thousand for the previous 18 months.  Sales are finally above the lows for previous recessions too.

This was slightly above expectations of 385,000, and was another fairly solid report. This indicates an ongoing recovery in residential investment.

New Home Sales graphs
• Real GDP increased 2.0% annual rate in Q3

This graph shows the quarterly real GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The Red column (and dashed line) is the advance estimate for Q3 GDP.

The Q3 GDP report was weak, with 2.0% annualized real GDP growth, but slightly better than expected. Final demand increased in Q3 as personal consumption expenditures increased at a 2.0% annual rate (up from 1.5% in Q2), and residential investment increased at a 14.4% annual rate (up from 8.5% in Q2).

Investment in equipment and software was flat in Q3, and investment in non-reside ntial structures was negative.   However, it appears the drag from state and local governments will end soon (after declining for 3 years).

The next graph shows the contribution to percent change in GDP for residential investment and state and local governments since 2005.

The blue bars are for residential investment (RI), and RI was a significant drag on GDP for several years. Now RI has added to GDP growth for the last 6 quarters (through Q3 2012).

However the drag from state and local governments is ongoing, although the drag in Q3 was very small. State and local governments have been a drag on GDP for twelve consecutive quarters. Although not as large a negative as the worst of the housing bust (and much smaller spillover effects), this decline has been relentless and unprecedented. The good news is the drag appears to be ending.

In real terms, state and local government spending is now back to 2001 levels, even with a larger population.

Residential Investment as a percent of GDP is up from the record lows during the housing bust. Usually RI bounces back quickly following a recession, but this time t here is a wide bottom because of the excess supply of existing vacant housing units.

Last year the increase in RI was mostly from multifamily and home improvement investment. Now the increase is from most categories including single family. I'll break down Residential Investment (RI) into components after the GDP details are released this coming week. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.

The key story is that residential investment is continuing to increase, and I expect this to continue (although the recovery in RI will be sluggish compared to previous recoveries). Since RI is the best leading indicator for the economy, this suggests no recession this year or in 2013 (with the usual caveats about Europe and policy errors in the US).

• AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in September

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 51.6 in September, up from 50.2 in August. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

This increase is mostly being driven by demand for design of multi-family residential buildings - and this suggests there are more apartments coming (there are already quite a few apartments under construction). Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. This suggests increase in CRE investment next year (it will be some time before investment in offices and malls increases).

• ATA Trucking Index increased in September

From ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 0.4% in September

Note: ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello says, for trucking, the pickup in housing is offsetti ng the "flattening in manufacturing output".

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index. The index is above the pre-recession level and up 2.4% year-over-year - but has been mostly moving sideways in 2012.

• Final October Consumer Sentiment at 82.6

The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October declined to 82.6 from the preliminary reading of 83.1, and was up from the September reading of 78.3.

This was slightly below the consensus f orecast of 83.1. Overall sentiment is still weak - probably due to a combination of the high unemployment rate and the sluggish economy - but consumer sentiment has been improving.

Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to show 1.7% Year-over-year increase for August

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2012 03:32:00 PM

Note: The Case-Shiller report to be released next Tuesday is for August (really an average of prices in June, July and August).

Zillow Forecast: August Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 1.7% Increase from One Year Ago

On Tuesday Oct. 30, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for August will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will be up by 1.7 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will be up 1.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from July to August will be 0.2 percent for the 20-City Composite and 0.3 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, the August Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales.

As the housing market recovery continues, home prices are expected to modestly appreciate, with growth rates being below “normal” pre-housing recession levels. Zillow’s Home Value Index for September was released on Monday night and shows the largest quarterly appreciation since March 2006, showing that the market is regaining some of its strength. National home values are up 3.2 percent from year-ago levels and have now seen four consecutive quarters of appreciation. While the national housing market is showing consistent signs of improvement, the recovery is uneven across the country. Some markets, such as Phoenix, Riverside and Miami are doing exceptionally well, while St. Louis and Atlanta are still faltering. Part of the strong home value appreciation we are seeing is driven by acute inventory shortages in many markets with foreclosures and foreclosure re-sales down and many people still locked up in negative equity, limiting overall supply. In these last months of 2012, Case-Shiller indices are expected to moderate and likely report monthly declines toward the end of the year track ing the Zillow Home Value Index. Monthly depreciation toward the end of the year is largely a function of declining overall monthly sales volume, which will increase the percentage of foreclosure re-sales in the transactional mix being tracked by Case-Shiller.

Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close.

		Case Shiller Composite 10		Case Shiller Composite 20
		NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Case Shiller (year ago)	August 2011	156.51	153.49	142.97	140.11
Case-Shiller (last month)	July 2012	157.3	154.85	144.61	142.1
Zillow June Forecast	YoY	1.2%	1.2%	1.7%	1.7%
	MoM	0.7%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
Zillow Forecasts1		158.4	155.3	145.4	142.4
Current Post Bubble Low		146.52	149.19	134.10	136.45
Date of Post Bubble Low		Mar-12	Jan-12	Mar-12	Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low		8.1%	4.1%	8.4%	4.4%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts

Comments on Q3 GDP and Investment

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2012 12:15:00 PM

The Q3 GDP report was weak, with 2.0% annualized real GDP growth, but slightly better than expected. Final demand increased in Q3 as personal consumption expenditures increased at a 2.0% annual rate (up from 1.5% in Q2), and residential investment increased at a 14.4% annual rate (up from 8.5% in Q2).

Investment in equipment and software was flat in Q3, and investment in non-residential structures was negative.   However, it appears the drag from state and local governments will end soon (after declining for 3 years).

Overall this was another weak report indicating sluggish growth.

The following graph shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter centered average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

For the foll owing graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.

The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.

Click on graph for larger image.

Residential Investment (RI) made a positive contribution to GDP in Q3 for the sixth consecutive quarter. Usually residential investment leads the economy, but that didn't happen this time beca use of the huge overhang of existing inventory, but now RI is contributing. The good news: Residential investment has clearly bottomed.

The contribution from RI will probably continue to be sluggish compared to previous recoveries, but the ongoing positive contribution to GDP is a significant story.

Equipment and software investment was unchanged in Q3 (compared to Q2). This followed twelve consecutive quarters with a positive contribution.

The contribution from nonresidential investment in structures was negative in Q3. Nonresidential investment in structures typically lags the recovery, however investment in energy and power has masked the ongoing weakness in office, mall and hotel investment (the underlying details will be released next week).

The second graph shows the contribution to percent change in GDP for residential investment and state and local governments since 2005.

The blue bars are for residential investment (RI), and RI was a significant drag on GDP for several years. Now RI has added to GDP growth for the last 6 quarters (through Q3 2012).

However the drag from state and local governments is ongoing, although the drag in Q3 was very small. State and local governments have been a drag on GDP for twelve consecutive quarters. Although not as large a negative as the worst of the housing bust (and much smaller spillover effects), this decline has been relentless and unprecedented. The good news is the drag appears to be ending.

In real terms, state and local government spending is now back to 2001 levels, even with a larger population.

Residential Investment as a percent of GDP is up from the record lows during the housing bust. Usually RI bounces back quickly following a recession, but this time there is a wide bottom because of the excess supply of existing vacant housing units.

Last year the increase in RI was mostly from multifamily and home improvement investment. Now the increase is from most categories including single family. I'll break down Residential Investment (RI) into components after the GDP details are released this c oming week. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.

The last graph shows non-residential investment in structures and equipment and software.

I'll add details for investment in offices, malls and hotels next week.

The key story is that residential investment is continuing to increase, and I expect this to continue (although the recovery in RI will be sluggish compared to previous recoveries). Since RI is the best leading indicator for the eco nomy, this suggests no recession this year or in 2013 (with the usual caveats about Europe and policy errors in the US).

Earlier with revision graphs:
• Real GDP increased 2.0% annual rate in Q3